Ferret's Blog
It is a little difficult to know where to start this week. I should be feeling ultra-positive, but instead the glass is looking decidedly half-empty due to situations that are totally outside of our control.
Two tremendous battling draws last week have left us well and truly in the play-off hunt, but the competition for promotion to the Championship via a Wembley showpiece is looking increasingly likely to be derailed by the decisions that will be made on Leeds United in two weeks' time.
If Leeds are unsuccessful in their appeal then it is all systems go, and our prospects of taking the season into overtime are exceedingly good. If however they win their legal battle with the Football League - and more informed parties than myself believe they might - then the rug is pulled out from beneath us.
Three games will pass between now and the decision, but if the status quo is maintained as far as relative points goes, we could find ourselves five points outside the playoffs with just three games to go to claw them back.
I mentioned a few weeks ago how I felt that, to avoid this season's competition turning into a farce, any points amendments needed to be made ahead of the half-way mark - and here is my reason why.
We have just come back from Elland Road, happy with securing the draw, but from a game where we dominated the closing stages. We settled for the draw in the end because we rightly did not want to gamble and risk losing the match (having done just that against Cheltenham earlier in the season), and a draw kept us very much in the playoff race.
However, if we had gone into that match with Leeds three points ahead of us instead of two points behind, then a draw would not have satisfied us. We would have been throwing absolutely everything forward in the last 20 minutes, looking to secure the win and all three points.
Who is to say that we would not have achieved that had it been required? The same argument can be made by Nottingham Forest after their draw, and also others who could similarly miss out on the playoffs by a couple of points.
If Leeds get all of their 15 points back then they will go above Carlisle in the race for second place. Carlisle have to visit Elland Road on Saturday week, two days before the hearing opens. How on earth do Carlisle prepare for that match?
Currently three points ahead of Doncaster with a game in hand, the important thing for them - based on the table as it stands today - is not to lose, and therefore a draw would be a brilliant result. However, if Leeds get their points back then it could be disastrous for Carlisle who would then have felt that they needed a victory.
You may argue that Carlisle should go for victory anyway, and then there is no issue, but that misses the point. By aggressively chasing victory you also increase your probability of defeat. Therefore it is all a matter of risk assessment.
If Carlisle chase victory at Leeds next Saturday and lose, then if they are pipped by a point by Doncaster at the end of the season you could point at that game as the defining moment. Yet if they chase the draw, achieve it and then see Leeds get their points back, they are equally damned.
It really is a no-win situation for the other teams in the playoff race and the team that finishes 3rd or 7th will have every right to feel totally cheated, despite having done nothing wrong.
In the meantime all that we can do is try and win each and every one of the remaining six matches. Last week I revealed that history tells us that 75 points is likely to be required to make the playoffs, and if Leeds get their points back I believe we will need each and every one of them.
That means 15 points need to be harvested - starting with Port Vale on Saturday and then, without a shadow of a doubt our biggest game of the season to date, the trip to Southend next Tuesday. We need all six points - let's go and get them!
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